Where is This Going?

Written By Brian Steinmetz

A 12-Month Forecast for Chittenden County & Stowe (June 2025–June 2026)

A potential client asked me the other day, “Where do you see the market going in the next 12 months?” …It was such a good question I decided to blog about it!

Whether you’re a seller in Burlington or a second-home investor in Stowe, this guide will help you navigate the year ahead with confidence.

Market Recap: Where We Stand Now

The Vermont market in the past year has shown resilience—especially in Chittenden County and Lamoille County (home to Stowe). While interest rates cooled buyer urgency, demand still outpaces supply in most price points.

As of May 2025:

  • Chittenden County median home price: ~$550,000 (↑ ~3% YoY)

  • Stowe median home price: ~$1.2M

Builders aren’t keeping up with demand, especially for mid-tier homes. With limited new construction, existing home prices remain firm (yet, there have been a lot of price reductions this Spring, which is indicative of sellers and their agents overpricing their listings, more than anything).

VT Real Estate Forecast: June 2025 - June 2026

Mortgage Rates Will Dictate Buyer Activity

Expect rates to stay between 6-7%. While a dip into the high 5s is possible if inflation cools, don’t expect sub-4% rates again. Like… ever. Buyers will need to plan for today’s rates—not yesterday’s. This is the new normal.

More Listings Coming in Fall and Spring

Seller confidence is growing:

  • Fall 2025: Expect increased listings across Burlington, Essex, and Colchester

  • Winter 2025-26: More Stowe listings will become available during the peak ski season.

  • Spring 2026: Stronger inventory growth as homeowners adjust to the market shift.

Home Prices Will Keep Rising—Just More Slowly

It’s very probable that we’ll never see a real estate frenzy like we did in 2021-2022 ever again. So 40% appreciation in three years isn’t on the radar. To those who cashed in when the time was right: congratulations! To those who didn’t… your property is still worth way more than you paid for it, especially if you bought pre-2020.

  • Chittenden County: 2–4% appreciation projected

  • Stowe: ~3% appreciation, particularly for homes below $1.5M

No crash expected—tight inventory and steady demand are keeping prices resilient. I’ll say it again: no crash expected. 2008 isn’t coming back, either.

Buyers Are Getting Strategic

Today’s buyers are negotiating harder and looking for value:

  • More price reductions as sellers adjust to the new normal

  • Longer days on market in the $500,000+ range

  • Out-of-state buyers are looking for smart investments, not bidding wars

Renters Becoming First-Time Buyers

Rising rents + modest wage growth = more buyers in the $300K–$450K range, especially in places like Winooski, Essex and Colchester. Competition remains high in this price bracket due to limited supply, so come ready to fight for the house you want.

What This Means for You

If You’re a Seller:

  • Fall 2025 could be a strategic window to list

  • Price competitively—buyers are savvy and not overpaying

If You’re a Buyer:

  • Get pre-approved early and know your price limits

  • Work with a local agent who can negotiate and uncover hidden value (I know a guy)

If You’re Shopping in Stowe:

  • Explore off-market options—some long-time owners want a quiet exit

  • Watch the $1.5M–$2M range for flexible pricing and room to negotiate

Final Thoughts

The wild market of 2020–2022 is behind us. As is the crash of 2008-09. What we have now is balanced but competitive. Navigating this market requires data, strategy, and local expertise.


Need a custom buying or selling plan?

Brian Steinmetz
Next

Vermont’s Housing Crunch